Customer-Base Analysis with Discrete-Time Transaction Data

Peter S. Fader
The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

Bruce G.S. Hardie
London Business School

Paul D. Berger
Boston University

September 2004

Abstract

Many businesses track repeat transactions on a discrete-time basis. These include: (1) companies with transactions that occur at regular intervals (such as subscription renewals), (2) firms that frequently associate transactions with specific events (e.g., a direct marketer that records whether or not customers respond to a particular catalog), and (3) organizations that simply use discrete reporting periods even though the transactions can occur at any time. Furthermore, many of these businesses operate in a noncontractual setting, so they have a difficult time differentiating between those customers who have ended their relationship with the firm versus those who are in the midst of a long hiatus between transactions. Our goal is to develop a model to predict future purchase patterns for a customer base that can be described by these structural characteristics. Our "beta-geometric/beta-binomial" (BG/BB) model allows for heterogeneity in each of the underlying behavioral processes (customers' purchase propensities while active, and time until each customer becomes permanently inactive), and yields relatively simple closed-form expressions for future expectations conditional on past observed behavior. We apply the model to a previously published dataset consisting of cruise-line transactions for a cohort of 6094 customers over a period of five years, and demonstrate the valuable insights that arise from our forward-looking modelling framework.